Update – 12:01 AM EST

At the 10:00 PM EST update from the National Hurricane Center, Nicole has made its expected turn toward a west-northwestward heading. The system should turn toward the northwest and north during the next day or so while moving along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, moving over the Florida peninsula and northern Florida.

In 36 to 48 hours, Nicole should accelerate north-northeastward. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus prediction.

The hurricane has little time to strengthen further before making landfall in Florida. Weakening will occur while Nicole moves over Florida, and even though the center may briefly emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this is not likely to result in any significant re-intensification.

The system should weaken to a depression and become a post-tropical cyclone over the southeastern United States. Nicole should merge with another extratropical low over the eastern United States after 48 hours.

Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday.
   
   
2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.
   
   
3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.
   
   
4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.